Modeling diffusion of electrical appliances in the residential sector

TitleModeling diffusion of electrical appliances in the residential sector
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2010
AuthorsMcNeil, Michael A, Virginie E Letschert
JournalEnergy and Buildings
Date Published06/2010
KeywordsAir Conditioners, appliance energy efficiency, appliances, Diffusion rates, energy demand modeling, modeling, refrigerators, regression analysis, residential, televisions, Washing machines

This paper presents a methodology for modeling residential appliance uptake as a function of root macroeconomic drivers. The analysis concentrates on four major energy end uses in the residential sector: refrigerators, washing machines, televisions and air conditioners. The model employs linear regression analysis to parameterize appliance ownership in terms of household income, urbanization and electrification rates according to a standard binary choice (logistic) function. The underlying household appliance ownership data are gathered from a variety of sources including energy consumption and more general standard of living surveys. These data span a wide range of countries, including many developing countries for which appliance ownership is currently low, but likely to grow significantly over the next decades as a result of economic development. The result is a ‘global’ parameterization of appliance ownership rates as a function of widely available macroeconomic variables for the four appliances studied, which provides a reliable basis for interpolation where data are not available, and forecasting of ownership rates on a global scale. The main value of this method is to form the foundation of bottom-up energy demand forecasts, project energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, and allow for the construction of detailed emissions mitigation scenarios.

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