This collection of studies together reveal the importance of soil organic carbon estimation methods in the baseline case and monitoring plans in the project case, since minimal above-ground vegetation exists on degraded wastelands targeted for some options, and C benefits from mitigation are substantial below ground and hence small on a per ha basis.

In summary, these papers illustrate that baseline estimates vary substantially by:

1. the extent to which a model is able to represent the stratification of the region's biophysical and socioeconomic  parameters,
2. the geographic scale of the GHG assessment region selected for a project; and
3. the model or methods used for analysis.

A step-wise approach for setting baselines that considers appropriate stratification of the GHG assessment region and the length of the historical time period to use for selection of input data can improve the applicability of a regional baseline to a specific project located within the region. 

The papers also confirm that leakage can be an important issue for avoided deforestation projects, but measures to overcome it have been successfully demonstrated. By the same token, leakage was not found to be significant for afforestation projects on lands with low opportunity costs that do not produce commodities traded on regional markets. Thus, projects will need to be carefully sited to minimize leakage, designed to mitigate local or national leakage if expected, and/or use regional look-up tables developed in time from national and global timber trade models, if they seek to take international leakage into account. However, taking leakage into account, or not, and how, are significant policy issues that GHG mitigation programs worldwide likely will face.

IPCC Good Practices Guidelines for reporting emissions and uptake from other sectors besides LULUCF do not require leakage estimation or discounting of mitigation benefits. To require them for forestry projects provides a disincentive and non-level playing field for this sector, as noted in a recent workshop summary on avoided deforestation as an emerging mitigation option.

Estimation of Baselines and Leakage in Carbon Mitigation Forestry Projects LBNL-61454

Land Use Change and Forestry Climate Project Regional Baselines: A Review LBNL-61455

Baselines for Land-Use Change in the Tropics: Application to Avoided Deforestation Projects LBNL-61456

Carbon Forestry Economic Mitigation Potential in India, by Land Classification LBNL-61457

Development of Regional Climate Mitigation Baseline for a Dominant Agro-Ecological Zone of Karnataka, India LBNL-61458

Methodological Issues in Forestry Mitigation Projects: A Case Study of Kolar District LBNL-61459

Community and Farm Forestry Climate Mitigation Projects: Case Studies from Uttaranchal, India LBNL-61460

Development of an Agroforestry Sequestration Project in Khammam District of India LBNL-61461

Assessment of Carbon Leakage in Multiple Carbon-Sink Projects: A Case Study in Jambi Province, Indonesia LBNL-61463

Analysis of Leakage in Carbon Sequestration Projects in Forestry: A Case Study of Upper Magat Watershed, Philippines LBNL-61464

Application of the "Climafor" Baseline to Determine Leakage: the Case of Scolel Te. LBNL-61462